雙語社評齊齊聽

[英語 (足本收聽)] Presented by Mr CHAN, Jason Siu-chuen, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

[普通話 (足本收聽)] Presented by Dr YAO, Shuiying Jennifer, Lecturer of School of Professional Education and Executive Development, SPEED, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

The year 2020 changed the entire world. A once-in-a-century pandemic has rendered what we took for granted impossible to attain. The international order, which was at a historical crossroads, is now surrounded by mists of uncertainty, which make it hard to make out the road ahead. Hong Kong is weighed down by worries, and many people are at a loss what to do next. As a new year has come, the hope of the people is no doubt the coming of blissful times after the world plumbed the depths of misfortunes as well as great construction after so much destruction. However, the possibility of things continuing their downward trend, so much so that there will only be destruction but no construction, can absolutely not be underestimated. At the turn of the year, the roll-out of vaccines and a new occupant of the White House will bring about change to the world. However, it remains uncertain when the pandemic will be brought under control and whether the global economy can rebound strongly. The swearing-in of Biden will mean a new phase of China-US rivalry, and Hong Kong cannot stand in brilliant isolation. Whether the crazy rides of the stock markets, triggered by the money-printing of advanced nations, will reach even more highs or pave the way for a burst of the bubbles will also affect Hong Kong.

[ENG audio 1]

Global development is guided by some general trends. Economic globalisation and the headwind it has run into, the rise of China and the emergence of right-wing populism in the West are the most influential general trends of the first 20 years of the 21st century. At the same time, some unexpected "black swan" incidents also changed the trajectory of historical development. The 9/11 attacks upon the US in 2001, the financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic last year were such "black swan" incidents. These three historical events have had repercussions across the world and have affected the US and the West particularly deeply.

[ENG audio 2]

Some people believe that the 21st century is the century of Asia, and that the pandemic has accelerated China's rise and the US's decline. It is impossible to verify that theory at present. But without doubt the world's historical development has reached an important crossroads. If it is said that the year 2020 was a year when the virus wrought havoc on the world, many people have regarded the year 2021 as the year when humans fight back. In this global war against the pandemic, the country that has the last laugh will be in an advantageous position in the post-pandemic global order the way the victorious nations enjoyed an advantage after the Second World War. Countries like the US and the UK have pinned high hopes on the vaccines that they develop, not only because they offer the only hope to contain the virus in their countries, but also because they show that the technological strength of the West is still the pride of the world, which can turn things around. Looking forward at the year 2021, the roll-out of vaccines will definitely help advanced nations in Europe and America control the pandemic. The question is whether vaccines will turn the whole situation around.

[ENG audio 3]

After Biden is sworn in as president, the US's policies towards China might be adjusted, but the overall situation of rivalry will be difficult to change. It is certain that Biden will continue to suppress China's technological development and actively line up the US's traditional allies to contain China. As Hong Kong is a battlefield of the nations' rivalry, it cannot stand in splendid isolation. After so much time, Hong Kong remains unable to break free from the vicious loops of the pandemic. The difficulties facing the economy and people's livelihoods pile up. The political uncertainties have yet to be eliminated. There are many hidden dangers in the external political and economic situations. The new year will be a year of many potential worries. The government should act carefully and pay attention.

[ENG audio 4]

否極泰來人心所欲 每况愈下陰霾未消

2020年改變了全世界，一場百年不遇的世紀疫情，令以往理所當然的日常，忽然變得可望而不可即，國際格局本已處於歷史十字路口，現在更是迷霧遍佈，看不清前方；香港憂患重重，不少人感到前路茫茫。新一年來臨，否極泰來、大破後大立，當然是人心所欲，然而每况愈下、破而不立的可能性，絕對不能低估。新年伊始，疫苗面世、白宮易主為世局發展帶來變數，然而疫症大流行何時方能受控、環球經濟是否真能強勁反彈，仍是未知之數；拜登上台，中美角力進入新階段，香港無法置身事外；發達國家印鈔救市所掀起的股市狂潮，究竟是高處未算高，還是埋下泡沫爆破伏線，同樣影響香港。

[PTH audio 1]

世界發展有其大勢，經濟全球化與其逆流、中國崛起、西方右翼民粹主義冒起，是21世紀頭20年影響最深遠的大趨勢。與此同時，一些出乎意料的「黑天鵝」事件，也會改變歷史發展軌迹，2001年美國九一一襲擊、2008年金融海嘯，以及去年的COVID-19疫情，正是這樣的「黑天鵝」。這3件歷史事件的影響遍及全球，對美國和西方衝擊尤深。

[PTH audio 2]

有意見認為，21世紀是亞洲世紀、疫情加速中美一浮一沉趨勢，是耶非耶，現階段無法斷言，然而世界歷史發展無疑來到重要十字路口。若說2020年是病毒橫掃全球之年，不少人都將2021年視為人類反擊之年，在這場「抗疫世界大戰」中，哪個國家笑到最後，就能在後疫情世界秩序中，進佔有利位置，情形就像二次世界大戰後的戰勝國那樣。美英等國對自家研發的新冠疫苗寄望甚殷，不僅因為它是擊退國內疫情唯一希望，更是西方科技實力仍然傲視全球的證明，可以化腐朽為神奇。展望2021年，疫苗面世對歐美發達國控制疫情必有幫助，問題在於是否足以起死回生。

[PTH audio 3]

拜登上台後，美國對華政策也許會有調整，然而鬥爭大局難變，拜登必將繼續打壓中國科技發展，並會積極拉攏傳統盟友壓制中國，香港身處大國博弈戰場，很難置身事外。香港遲遲無法走出疫情迴圈，經濟民生困頓日積月累，政治不安因素從未真正消除，外圍政經暗湧處處，新一年憂患多多，當局行事需要小心留神。

[PTH audio 4]

明報社評2021.01.01