【明報文章】The South Caucasus has long been considered as one of the regions where Russia exercised near exclusive level of influence. The geography allowed Moscow to project power to the Black and Caspian seas and most all into the Middle East. Yet, over the past few years, this began to change. Local and much wider geopolitical processes changed the dynamic among which Russia’s war in Ukraine which began in February 2022 stands out as a primary accelerator. But as will be argued below the shift is much more fundamental and is much connected to geography pushing the South Caucasus more toward the Middle East.