【明報文章】In a matter of less than two weeks Bashar al-Assad's long rule and with him his family's nearly half a century of political domination in Syria has collapsed. This comes after years of civil war and international intervention which left the country in shatters, its economy in collapse and millions of Syrian as refugees.

In the past two weeks a newly formed rebel alliance launched a major offensive across Syria, recapturing cities that had been under Assad's control. The group, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant faction formerly associated with al-Qaeda, eventually marched onto Damascus after taking strategically located Aleppo, Hama and Homs. This dramatic shift has left Syrians cautiously optimistic, though the future remains unclear.

Similar sentiments prevail among major powers. Turkey, Iran, the US, or Russia – all have had a certain degree of influence in Syria. There was a certain balance of power agreed upon for the past several years. Turkey controlled parts of the northern Syria. Eastern part of the country was under the Kurdish control, while north-westernmost province of Idlib was subject to the rule of the opposition forces. The rest of the country except for some disparate pockets were subject to the central government in Damascus.

This balance of power unraveled quickly in late November and accelerated in the first week of December when the rebel coalition, known as the "Military Operations Command," began a lightning offensive. "Military Operations Command" is a loose alliance of diverse groups with Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the head of HTS, serving as a major actor in the coalition. HTS has recently tried to distance itself from its al-Qaeda past, aiming to portray itself as a more moderate force. Jolani promised a more inclusive government and protection for religious or ethnic groups.

The sudden collapse of the Assad rule leaves a vacuum that could lead to further instability, with competing sides vying for power. For instance, it is highly unlikely that Damascus will find an easy way of cooperation with the Kurdish forces as the latter, supported by the US has been working on expanding its territorial reach to the center of Syria. Moreover, the Alawites, a religious group which detached itself from the traditional Shia Islam and to which the Assad family belonged, will likewise come under pressure from other religious or ethnic groups.

In theory, a more peaceful Syria might emerge but to achieve this scenario it will be necessary to find a common ground among the region's major actors. Turkey, Iran, Israel, and more distant Russia and the US will have to agree on basic premises among which are Syria's territorial integrity, its step-by-step integration back into economic life of the Middle East. The wealthy countries of the Persian Gulf could be instrumental in bringing back Syria into the political life of the region. In the past couple of years some attempts were made by the UAE and Saudi Arabia but they failed to materialize largely due to Damascus' intransigeance.

The unfolding rebel success can be attributed to a combination of factors, including Assad's weakened position and the shifting dynamics of the international landscape. For instance, Russia, which has been Assad's lifeline, has been bogged down in Ukraine for the past three years and has been unable to provide the same level of military support. With Assad's fall Russia has therefore lost a precious ally in the Middle East which allowed Moscow to project its power far beyond its immediate neighborhood and act more than just a regional power.

Another contributing factor to Assad's fall was Iran's distraction by its escalating conflict with Israel. The Islamic Republic's allies such as Hamas and Hezbollah have undergone painful transformation amid direct military pressure from the Jewish state. The supply links between Iran and Lebanon via Syria and Iraq have not been irreversibly compromised and there is little chance that the Islamic Republic will be able to reconstitute its former influence. The land corridor which has been Iran's major achievement is now tatters. This means that Iran will have to re-assess its forward-defense strategy which was based on the operation of its proxies within the Axis of Resistance.

In the end however all these major powers will have to acknowledge the fait accompli and begin working with the new political power in Damascus. The alternative is yet another round of military confrontation.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at the European University in Tbilisi, Georgia, and a scholar of Silk Roads. He can be reached on Twitter/X at @emilavdaliani.

[Emil Avdaliani]