【明報專訊】WITH the dust settled on the LegCo election, 50 incumbents won re-election, while 40 are fresh faces—newcomers making up just over 40%. Turnout rose slightly from the last election, yet the total number of votes cast fell by over 30,000. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), still the largest party in LegCo, suffered a 36% plunge in its votes in geographical constituencies, a telling sign that voters crave change. Both the government and political parties must respond to voter expectations, step out of the political stratosphere and reconnect with voices on the ground, winning broader support through solid performance and credible governance.

This was the second LegCo poll under the post-2021 electoral overhaul. The "patriots governing Hong Kong" framework has erased the once-familiar contest between pan-democratic and pro-establishment camps. The previous LegCo poll saw barely 30% turnout, the lowest on record, largely because pan-democratic supporters stayed home. Yet among the millions eligible to vote, not all are die-hard loyalists of either camp. A sizeable "silent majority" remains—people more concerned with livelihoods and the economy than with politics or ideology. This time, officials and business groups rolled out incentives aimed at drawing them to the polls. But an unforeseen blaze disrupted the campaign push, and the final turnout suggests that the city's underlying political currents barely shifted.

Turnout for the geographical constituencies reached 31.9%, up 1.7 percentage points from last time. Yet the number of registered voters shrank to 4.13 million, down 330,000 from before, meaning the actual number of voters fell by about 33,000. That implied the effort to mobilise the "silent majority" largely fizzled, or that those who did vote could not offset losses among traditional pro-establishment supporters. To alter these entrenched patterns, both the government and LegCo must work harder on reform, economic growth and people's livelihoods, proving their worth through governance results rather than rhetoric.

The new electoral set-up has brought more non-partisan professionals into LegCo, dulling the partisan hue. Even so, the DAB remains the dominant force. It secured half of the district seats—ten in total—and twenty overall when counting the Election Committee and functional constituencies, one more than last time. Yet its vote tally fell sharply to just over 430,000, roughly 250,000 fewer than before.

The DAB found itself under fire after it emerged that one of its district councillors had advised the owners' corporation of Wang Fuk Court, where the fatal blaze broke out. To attribute the party's vote plunge solely to "smear attacks", however, is to overlook a broader appetite for change.

The "pan-democrats versus establishment" dynamic has faded, but the underlying configuration of public sentiment remains stubbornly intact. By casting or withholding their ballots in the LegCo election, citizens voiced their discontent plainly. The DAB's slump may stem in part from the fire controversy, and just as much from disenchantment with its four-year record. A rough calculation suggests invalid ballots exceeded 41,000, nearly 50% more than last time. These results and turnout figures lend themselves to multiple readings—which is all the more reason for those in authority and the political elites to leave their comfort zones, look beyond their own reflections, stay attuned to public sentiment and keep refining their approach.

明報社評2025.12.09：民意結構未見重大變化 爭取支持須走出同溫層

立法會選舉結果塵埃落定，現屆議員50人連任，40 人屬於「新丁」，佔比超過四成。今屆投票率高於上屆，實際投票人數卻減少3萬多人；民建聯作為議會第一大黨，地區直選得票大幅減少36%，反映選民求變之心。政府和政黨需要回應選民的期望，敢於走出同溫層，多聽社會不同聲音，以政績及表現，爭取更廣泛的支持。

今次是2021年選舉制度修改後的第二次立法會選舉，落實「愛國者治港」後，昔日「泛民對建制」的選舉格局不復存在。上屆立法會選舉，投票率只得三成，屬歷來最低，主要是泛民支持者不投票。當然，全港數百萬合資格選民當中，並非都是泛民或建制派的鐵桿支持者，還有相當一部分屬於「沉默大多數」，比起政治議題或意識形態，他們更關心經濟民生與日常生活。今次政府和商界提出各種誘因鼓勵投票，動員對象就是這一類選民，未料一場大火，打亂整個選舉宣傳及動員部署，投票情况亦顯示，原有的民意結構，並未出現重大變化。

今屆立法會地區直選的投票率為31.9%，較上屆高出1.7個百分點，然而，整體登記選民人數只有413萬，少了33萬人，實際投票人數少了近3.3萬人。這顯示動員「沉默大多數」投票未奏效，又或出來投票的「沉默大多數」，不足以抵消傳統建制派政黨流失的選票。若要改變既有民意結構，政府和立法會需要在推改革、促經濟、惠民生方面多下苦功，以管治成績爭取更多市民的支持。

新選舉制度落實後，議會內多了無政黨背景的專業人士，政黨政治色彩減退，但民建聯仍為議會最大政黨。今次民建聯在地區直選取得一半議席（即10席），連同選委及功能界別，合共拿下20席，比上屆還要多出1席，可是得票僅43萬多，比上屆少了近25萬。

宏福苑大火後，民建聯區議員曾任其業主立案法團顧問一事，引發激烈議論。但將得票大跌集中歸因於「遭人抹黑」，可能忽略了選民渴望求變之心。

「泛民對建制」的政治環境雖已過去，但背後的民意結構並未改變，立法會選舉讓市民透過投票（或不投票）直接表達感受。民建聯得票大跌，跟「火災爭議」有關，但也可能是選民不滿意該黨過去4年整體表現；若以地區直選投票人數，減去所有候選人得票總數，大致可以推算出無效票超過4.1萬張，比上屆多近五成。今次選舉結果和投票情况，可以用不同角度解讀，正因如此，權力當局和各政黨更需走出同溫層，嘗試多角度掌握民情，了解民心所欲，不斷改進。

■ Glossary 生字 /

fizzle : end or fall in a weak or disappointing way

hue : a colour; a particular shade of a colour

smear attacks : efforts to damage someone's reputation using false, misleading, or malicious information