【明報專訊】FINANCIAL SECRETARY PAUL CHAN has revised the deficit estimate for the current fiscal year to $100 billion, more than double the estimate at the beginning of the year. The deficit would be even higher if bond issuance had not been treated as revenue.

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In the Budget published in February this year, Chan predicted that Hong Kong's annual economic growth would be between 2.5% and 3.5%, with a government deficit of $48.1 billion for the 2024/25 fiscal year. In retrospect, the authorities' previous estimates for both the local economy and the public finances were obviously too optimistic.

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Chan stated yesterday (2 December) that the deficit for this fiscal year is higher than the original estimate for three main reasons. First, revenue from land sales and land premiums has fallen sharply. Second, due to the overall economic environment, corporate profits have not been as high as expected, and real estate transactions have been sluggish for many months, resulting in a decrease in profits tax and stamp duty revenue. As for annual economic growth, the authorities have revised the forecast to 2.5%, the lower end of the forecast range at the beginning of the year. While it will still be within expectations, it is indeed not ideal. Almost two years have passed since the end of the pandemic, and public finances have shown no signs of improvement yet. The government's fiscal deficit reached $100 billion last year. The situation remains severe this year.

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Comparing Chan's latest statements to the Budget from earlier this year, there are two noteworthy points. First, in the Budget, it was mentioned that the government's debt-to-GDP ratio was expected to range between 9% and 13% from this year to 2028/29. Yesterday, he said that the ratio will rise from about 6.5% at the end of March this year to about 13% to 14%, indicating that this year's ratio would exceed the estimated upper end of 13%.

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Second, the Budget clearly stated that a surplus would return to the government's operating account from 2026/27 onwards, meaning the government would balance the books again within three years. However, Chan's statement yesterday adjusted the wording to express confidence in achieving fiscal balance "in the next three years or so", rather than definitively stating "three years". The vague wording of "three years or so" raises concern about how many extra years it will mean.

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In the early years of this century, to solve a fiscal deficit, the SAR government not only cut the civil service by 10% but also imposed a salary cut on them. Although the decision provoked a backlash from civil servants, it did help restore the public finances to a healthier state. In recent years, the government workforce has expanded significantly, and it is hard to imagine that there are no redundant staff. Furthermore, as the authorities are vigorously promoting the building of a smart government, there will definitely be some positions that can be eliminated or significantly reduced. The government has no reason not to streamline its structure and workforce.

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Furthermore, with the launch of the construction of the Northern Metropolis and a series of infrastructure projects, the government must rein in expenditures on construction projects. Building pedestrian bridges and elevated roads can easily cost billions of dollars of public funds. With such frittering away of money and lax supervision, there is no doubt a worry that the public coffers will "dry up". A 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio is considered a reasonable benchmark, and the government should strive to avoid significant deviations.

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明報社評2024.12.03：財赤千億添憂慮 壓縮薪津減冗員

財政司長陳茂波修訂本財政年度赤字估算，料達1000億元，比年初估算高出一倍，若不是將發債當作收入計算，赤字金額還不止於此。

今年2月財政預算案，陳茂波預測本港全年經濟增長介乎2.5%至3.5%，2024/25財年政府赤字為481億元。現在回看，無論是本港經濟還是公共財政狀况，當局之前的估算，顯然太樂觀。

陳茂波昨天表示，本財年赤字高於原先估計，原因主要有三，一是賣地及補地價收入大幅下滑，二是受經濟大環境影響，企業盈利不似預期，房地產多月交投量較低，導致利得稅及印花稅收入減少。全年經濟增長方面，當局將預測修訂為2.5%，即年初預測範圍下限，勉強仍算符合預期，但肯定不是理想數字。疫情結束至今差不多兩年，公共財政仍然未見起色，上年度政府財赤已達千億元，本年度情况依然嚴峻。

比對年初預算案，陳茂波的最新說法，有兩點值得留意。首先，預算案提到，預計本年度至2028/29年度，政府債務佔GDP比率介乎約9%至13%；昨天陳茂波則說，相關比例將由今年3月底時約6.5%，「增加到約13%至14%」，意味今年比例已可能超出13%這估計上限。

其次，預算案明確指出，政府經營帳目可在2026/27年度起恢復盈餘，意味3年內恢復收支平衡，可是陳茂波昨天的說法，字眼已調整為有信心「未來三數年」內回復收支平衡，而非斬釘截鐵的「3年」，而是模糊的「三數年」，究竟意味額外需要多少年期，令人關注。

本世紀初，特區政府為了解決財赤問題，不僅削減公務員編制一成，還要公務員減薪。雖然有關決定惹來公務員反彈，但確實有助公共財政回復健康。近年政府人手編制顯著膨脹，難以想像沒有冗員，况且當局大力推動智慧政府建設，必然有些崗位可以淘汰或顯著減少，政府沒理由無法精簡編制及人手。

另外，隨着北都建設及一系列基建項目上馬，政府必須嚴控工程支出。興建行人天橋和高架路，動輒便花數以十億元計公帑，花錢如流水，把關又不嚴，庫房當然有「乾塘」之憂。赤字佔GDP比例，3%被視為合理基準線，政府應致力避免顯著偏離。

■ Glossary 生字 /

in retrospect : thinking about a past event or situation, often with a different opinion of it from the one you had at the time

sluggish : moving, reacting or working more slowly than normal and in a way that seems lazy

fritter away : to waste time or money on things that are not important

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Audio files provided by John W