【明報專訊】A CHINESE WIND OF CHANGE was sent across South America by President Xi Jinping's attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and G20 summits and state visits to Peru and Brazil. Still, given the solid foundation of the United States' influence over Latin America, there will be no significant changes to Washington's dominant position within a short time.

In recent years, China has increased investments in and trade with Latin America, endeavouring to catch up from behind. It is worth observing whether the US will consider Beijing's subjective goal of seizing new markets as an act of poaching in America's backyard, and if it will result in a new battleground in Sino-US relations.

President Xi was in the limelight at the APEC summit as a China-funded port started operations in Chancay, Peru. Though not large, Chancay Port has huge potential because from now on, shipping from countries in the eastern part of South America to Asia will no longer have to go past the Panama Canal, thus saving time and costs. Not only does China benefit from the project, but it also wins applause from Japan and South Korea. On the other hand, US President Biden has donated to Peru a few helicopters for its counternarcotics operations and a fleet of old underground coaches withdrawn from service in San Francisco. Needless to say, China and the US contrast sharply in the eyes of Peru.

As the biggest country in South America, Brazil is the world's eighth-largest economy. Its exports to China reached US$105.7 billion last year, outdoing the total sum of its exports to the US and the European Union. Brazil's President Lula welcomed Xi warmly and signed 38 agreements with China. Three of the agreements carry relatively special meanings. In the first one, Brazil seeks China's provision of satellite communication services to decrease its dependence on the US. The second is Beijing's grant of a five-billion-yuan loan to Brazil. It is not a huge sum, but the currency is Renminbi. The third is the cooperation between China and Brazil in the field of nuclear technology applications.

The US has a solid influence over South America. It is a member of two key organisations on the continent, both of which are headquartered in Washington. The Organisation of American States (OAS) rests half of its recurrent expenses on the shoulders of the US. When there were special occasions for fundraising, Washington often made one-third of the contributions. The other important organisation is the Inter-American Development Bank. It provides loans to Latin American countries to support their development projects in infrastructure, culture, education, health, and so on. The US is the top investor in the bank's fund, contributing as much as US$5 billion. China ranked 15th, with an investment of only US$130 million.

However, China can still vie with the US when sincerity and attitude in development cooperation are concerned. China follows the diplomatic principle of not intervening in other countries' internal affairs. By contrast, the US frequently expels or sanctions certain members of the OAS for ideological reasons. Like its Latin American counterparts, China is a developing country that can enter reciprocal relations with them in economic development. With a demand for the agricultural products and natural resources of Latin American countries, China is willing to invest in these countries and provide technological support.

The US has traditionally regarded Central America as its backyard and South America as within its sphere of influence. It has been very vigilant against "external" interventions. Now that China has established an "assertive" presence in Latin America, it is hard to predict if [US President-elect] Trump, notorious for his aggressiveness, will see this as a trespass into America's backyard.

明報社評2024.11.25：競逐南美影響力始開局 中國爭市場美憂失後院

國家主席習近平出席亞太經合組織(APEC)和二十國集團(G20)峰會，並國事訪問秘魯和巴西，在南美洲牽起一陣中國旋風。然而，美國對拉丁美洲的影響力根基堅實，其主導地位短期內不會發生大變化。

中國近年在拉美地區加大投資和經貿往來，大有急起直追之勢。而中國為爭奪市場的主觀目標，是否會被美國看成在美國後院撬角的舉動，因而在中美兩國關係開闢一個新戰場，則值得觀察。

習近平主席在APEC峰會上大出風頭，原因是中國在秘魯投資興建的錢凱港開始營運，這個港口規模不大，但潛力巨大，因為南美洲東面國家到亞洲的貨運，今後毋須繞道巴拿馬運河而節省時間與運費，不但中國受惠，日本韓國也拍掌。反觀美國，拜登送秘魯幾架直升機作緝毒之用，以及三藩市捐贈淘汰的舊地鐵車廂，秘魯對中美兩個國家有鮮明的比較，不在話下。

巴西是南美洲最大國家，是世界第八大經濟體，去年對華貿易出口額達到1057億美元，超過巴西對美國和歐盟出口額的總和。總統勞拉盛情款待習近平，並與中國簽訂38項協議，其中有3個比較特別，一是巴西尋求中國提供通訊衛星服務，減少依賴美國；二是中國為巴西提供50億元貸款，金額不大，但貨幣是人民幣；三是中國和巴西展開核技術應用合作。

美國對南美洲的影響力非常牢固，兩個關鍵組織美國都是成員國，而且總部都設在華盛頓。美洲國家組織經常經費一半由美國承擔，遇到特殊需要募捐，美國往往提供三分之一的貢獻。另一個重要組織是美洲開發銀行，為拉美國家提供基建和文教衛生等發展項目貸款，美國對該銀行基金投入的金額排第一，達到50億美元，中國排在第15位，投入金額只有1.3億美元。

但在合作發展方面的誠意與態度，中國與美國還是可以一拼。中國的外交原則是不會干涉別國內政，美國則動輒以意識形態為由，開除或者抵制美洲國家組織某些成員國。中國與拉美國家同為發展中國家，在經濟發展方面有互補互惠的關係，中國對拉丁美洲國家的農產品與天然資源有需求，並且願意投資拉美國家及提供技術支援。

美國一向將中美洲視為後花園，以南美洲作為勢力範圍，對於「域外」勢力介入十分警惕。而今中國「強勢」在拉美國家出現，好勇鬥狠的特朗普是否會認為是插足其後院，難以逆料。

■ Glossary 生字 /

a wind of change : an event or a series of events that has started to happen and will cause important changes or results

poach : to take and use sb/sth that belongs to sb/sth else, especially in a secret, dishonest or unfair way

reciprocal : involving two people or groups who agree to help each other or behave in the same way to each other