【明報專訊】THE RESULTS OF THE US ELECTION have become clear. Donald Trump will become the occupant of the White House again, and the Republican Party is poised to seize control of Congress. This means Trump has earned a complete mandate to promote his "America First" and unilateral policies. The rivalry between major powers will intensify, and the international political and economic environment might become even more volatile.

As of last night (6 November), among the seven swing states, Trump has already secured victories in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina, with the possibility of ultimately winning all seven states. In the last two elections, Trump lost the popular vote, receiving fewer votes nationwide than his opponents. In this election, Trump is expected to outperform his opponent with over half of the popular vote.

The results show that the gap between the two candidates is far from expected, reflecting that support for Trump has been underestimated once again. The performance of US polling agencies and mainstream media is likely to provoke more discussions. As for Congress, the Republicans have won back control of the Senate and made gains in the House of Representatives. Given how things are going, the White House and both the Senate and the House of Representatives might all fall into Republican hands.

After the financial tsunami, the disparity between the rich and the poor in the US has significantly worsened. The foundation for political and social stability is being eroded continuously. Surveys indicate that the US population living in middle-class households has dropped from more than 60% in 1971 to just 50% in recent years. In terms of income, the middle-class share in overall US household income has fallen from 62% in the 1970s to only 42% in recent years. Trump represents the dark side of American decline. The question of which way the US is headed when Trump occupies the White House for four more years concerns not only Americans but also the entire world.

The results of this election mean that the US administration and Congress will once again be controlled by the same political party after the 2008 and 2016 elections. It is noteworthy that when Trump first came to power, the Republican Party was still dominated by traditional elites, who had reservations about Trump. Today, the "MAGA faction" (an acronym for "Make America Great Again") led by Trump has become the mainstream of the Republican Party. In other words, Trump will have a firm grip on Congress and push forward with his radical policies. It is not an exaggeration to say that he will be the most powerful president in the US in recent years.

During his first presidency, Trump believed that bureaucratic elites were obstructing his administration every step of the way. He has vowed to dismantle this "deep state" upon his return, including removing judicial personnel who investigate his illegal behaviour and converting many bureaucrats into political appointments. It implies that political loyalty will be his priority in personnel appointments. Liberals' worries about the collapse of the American democratic system and checks and balances are not unfounded.

The US plays a part in the world's unprecedented change. In his victory speech, Trump vowed to bring in a golden age for America. Time will tell whether the 2024 election will be the watershed moment that determines the rise and fall of the US.

明報社評2024.11.07：社會衰敗造就特朗普 美國國運浮沉難逆料

美國大選揭盅，特朗普再度入主白宮，共和黨也可望奪下國會控制權，意味特朗普可「全面執政」，全力推動其「美國優先」及單邊主義政策，大國博弈紛爭加劇，國際政經環境只怕更動盪。

截至昨晚，七大游離州中，特朗普已確定拿下佐治亞、賓夕法尼亞、威斯康星及北卡州，不排除最終結果是「盡攬七州」。上兩屆大選，特朗普都輸掉「普選票」（即全國總得票不及對手），今屆大選，特朗普連普選票也有望以過半數壓倒對手。

戰果顯示兩人差距遠比預期大，再次反映特朗普支持度遭低估，民調機構和美國主流傳媒的表現，相信將惹來更多議論。國會方面，共和黨重奪參院控制權，眾議院議席也有斬獲，以目前走勢，白宮和參眾兩院有可能全歸共和黨。

金融海嘯之後，美國貧富懸殊顯著加劇，政治社會穩定根基不斷遭蠶食。調查顯示，居於中產家庭的美國人口，由1971年超過六成，降至近年只有五成；論收入，中產家庭佔全美所有家庭收入的比例，更由70年代的62%，降至近年只有42%。特朗普代表了美國衰敗陰暗面，再主白宮4年，美國何去何從，不僅是美國人的事，更是全世界的事。

今次是2008及2016年大選之後，美國「府會」再由同一政黨掌控。值得留意是，特朗普首次上台時，共和黨仍由傳統精英主導，對特朗普頗有保留；今時今日，以特朗普為首的「MAGA派」（令美國再度偉大的英語字首縮寫），已成共和黨主流，意味特朗普有力控制國會，推動其激進政策，說他是近年美國權力最大總統並不為過。

特朗普首任總統期間，認定有官僚精英處處阻撓其施政，誓言回朝後必將設法瓦解這個「深層政府」（Deep State），包括革除調查其違法行為的司法人員，以及將大批官僚改為政治任命，意即用人將以政治忠誠先行，自由派擔心美國民主制度和權力制衡崩壞，並非無的放矢。

世界百年不遇變局，美國是主角之一。特朗普勝利宣言，誓言為美國帶來一個黃金時代，2024年大選會否是決定美國盛衰的分水嶺，時間將是見證人。

■ Glossary 生字 /

mandate : the authority to do sth, given to a government or other organisation by the people who vote for it in an election

volatile : (of a situation) likely to change suddenly; easily becoming dangerous

erode : to gradually destroy sth or make it weaker over a period of time; to be destroyed or made weaker in this way