In this election, Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate. If she wins, she will make US history by becoming the first female president. As for the Republican Party, if Donald Trump successfully returns to the White House, he will be the second former president in American history to win a nonconsecutive term after Grover Cleveland, who was elected president in 1884 and 1892.
In 1858, in his famous "House Divided" speech, Abraham Lincoln cited the Bible, saying, "A house divided against itself cannot stand." This statement remains just as relevant today. The current political divide in American society is even more severe than in the 1960s. In the eyes of liberals, the election today is a battle to defend American democracy and liberal values. For supporters of Donald Trump, it is a fight to prevent further economic downturns and to uphold conservative values. Regardless of who emerges victorious, many supporters on the other side are likely to find it hard to accept the election result.
History often shows remarkable similarities, yet it never simply repeats itself. In 2016, Trump came to power riding a wave of populism. Eight years have passed, and conservative white males and blue-collar workers are still the biggest capital for his reelection bid. However, the fact that Trump, who lost the 2020 election, has managed to make a comeback and has a chance to occupy the White House again is a miracle in itself.
During the Biden administration, the economic growth of the US has outperformed the other G7 countries, while the unemployment rate has dropped to a half-century low. Still, opinion polls overwhelmingly show that most Americans think the economy is bad and life is getting worse. Trump often equated the stock market performance with his political achievements. However, the Biden administration's achievement in this regard has actually trumped Trump's. The S&P 500 index had a compound annual growth rate of 12.1% during Trump's term, compared to 14.1% under Biden.
For liberal voters, Trump plumbs the depths of dishonesty. However, even if Kamala Harris wins, she will also be saddled with a huge "credibility deficit". Since the Democratic Party swapped Biden for Harris in July, the most common query Harris has faced is that while her Internet memes are full of gimmicks, her policies are ambiguous. If she continues to tread the old path of Biden's (and the Democratic Party elite's) governance after taking office, it is unlikely for her to reverse the "credibility deficit".
In the US, political donations in elections have often attracted criticism. Recently, Elon Musk has been holding a daily million-dollar giveaway as a disguised way to campaign for Trump, making people wonder what is wrong with American democracy. The political division and credibility crisis faced by the US will not be alleviated by this election and may even worsen in the future.
明報社評 2024.11.05：美國百載最重要大選 公信力危機未見出路
美國大選今天舉行，無論對美國人民以至全世界來說，這都是一場影響深遠的歷史性選舉。
今屆大選，賀錦麗取代拜登成為民主黨總統候選人，若然勝出將開創美國歷史，成為首位女總統；共和黨方面，特朗普若能成功「回朝」，將是繼克里夫蘭（Grover Cleveland，1884及1892年當選總統）之後，美國史上第二位隔屆當選的前總統。
1858年，林肯在其著名的「分裂之家」演說中，援引《聖經》說，「一個家庭如果自相紛爭，這個家庭就站立不住」。這句說話同樣適用於今朝。當下美國社會政治撕裂之嚴重，比1960年代有過之而無不及。在自由派眼中，這是一場捍衛美國民主和自由主義價值觀的決戰；在特朗普支持者眼中，這是阻止美國民生經濟繼續走下坡、堅持保守派價值的鬥爭。無論最終誰人得勝，恐怕另一方都有大批支持者覺得難以接受。
歷史總是驚人的相似，但也不會簡單重複。2016年特朗普乘着民粹主義之風上台，8年過去，保守白人男性及藍領工薪階層，依然是他爭勝最大本錢，然而特朗普作為2020年大選敗軍之將，竟能捲土重來，有機會再度成為白宮主人，這本身已是奇蹟。
拜登政府任內，美國經濟增長冠絕七大工業國，失業率降至半世紀低點，可是民調卻一面倒顯示，多數美國人覺得經濟不好、生活每况愈下。特朗普任內常將股市表現等同「個人政績」，但拜登政府這方面「政績」其實更勝一籌：特朗普任內標普500指數年均複合增長12.1%，拜登任內則為14.1%。
對於自由派選民，特朗普根本就是一個不可信的騙子，惟即使賀錦麗勝出，同樣背負龐大「公信力赤字」。自從7月民主黨「換登」以來，賀錦麗最常面對的質疑，就是網絡迷因噱頭十足，政策面目模糊不清，若她上台後只是繼續沿襲拜登（及民主黨精英階層）治國路線，實在看不到有何辦法扭轉「公信力赤字」。
美國選舉獻金政治屢惹詬病，最近馬斯克搞每日百萬美元大抽獎，變相為特朗普助選，更令人質疑美國民主到底在搞什麼。美國所面對的政治撕裂及公信力危機，不會因為今次選舉而緩和，未來甚至有可能進一步惡化。
/ Glossary生字 /
ride a/the wave of sth：to enjoy or be supported by the particular situation or quality mentioned
plumb the depths of sth：to be or to experience an extreme example of sth unpleasant
saddle with：to saddle sb/yourself with sth is to give sb/yourself an unpleasant responsibility, task, debt, etc
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