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Although it is too early to say whether the 2021 Capitol riot will repeat itself, anxiety is already spreading in the US. In particular, liberals have already "defined" Trump as a direct threat to the democratic system and liberal values. The race is about not only who will take the helm of the White House, but also what the US mainstream core values are. If Harris wins, liberals can of course laud the tenacity of the US's democratic system. In the case of Trump's victory, American liberal values will face an unprecedented blow.

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As election day draws near, support has swung to Trump and away from Harris, tilting her to the downside. Facing an increasingly unfavourable situation towards the end of the election campaign, Harris has resorted to repeatedly describing Trump as a fascist.

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Liberals have fretted over Trump for long. After winning with his populist appeal in 2016, Trump announced a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and adopted a hard-line anti-immigrant policy, dealing blows to liberal values. Although Joe Biden managed to defeat him in his re-election bid in 2020, that did not spell the end of the liberals' nightmare. Trump's alleging that the election has been rigged, and his supporters stormed the Capitol building, unleashing bloodshed and inflicting unparalleled damage on the US democratic system. At this moment, Trump is still in the middle of a legal process related to the Capitol riot. If he is elected again, it will absolutely be a big slap in the face of US liberals.

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Harris comes from the liberal stronghold of California. Despite serving as the vice president, as far as the economy is concerned, her role and performance have been unnoticeable. Some have even taken this as a reason for doubting her capability to govern the nation. According to a survey by polling organisation Gallup in September, the economy was the only issue regarded as "extremely important" by more than half (52%) of American voters.

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Another open-ended survey conducted at the end of last month by Gallup showed that the economy was still regarded as the most important factor (21%). Immigrants followed in second place with a share of 13%, while abortion rights/women's rights came third with 9%. That means factors in Trump's advantage are actually of more concern. In fact, in 2016, Trump had swept across a string of Democrat strongholds exactly by pinpointing the pain point of economic hardship felt by the lower working class.

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Trump is an extreme politician regarded as a threat to democracy by liberals, but he has still managed to garner support from nearly half of voters. That inevitably leads one to contemplate why liberal values have failed to rise beyond the socio-economic great divide. Regardless of the election returns, the political and social cleavages in the US are a fact that cannot be ignored.

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明報社評2024.11.04：美國大選涇渭分明 自由派濁水求新路

美國第60屆總統選舉明天（11月5日）舉行，兩大候選人特朗普與賀錦麗支持率持續膠着，突顯美國政治深刻分裂，鑑於特朗普有拒絕接受選舉結果前科，有輿論甚至擔心選後美國可能陷入政治混亂。

2021年國會山莊騷亂是否會重演言之尚早，但焦慮情緒正在美國蔓延，尤其是自由派已將特朗普「定性」為民主制度與自由主義價值觀的直接威脅，勝敗不僅關乎誰主白宮，更關乎到什麼是美國社會主流核心價值。倘若賀錦麗勝出，自由派當然可以謳歌美國民主制度韌性；萬一特朗普最終當選，美國自由主義價值將面臨一場前未所有的衝擊。

隨着投票日臨近，特朗普與賀錦麗支持率此消彼長，賀錦麗處於下滑態勢。面對漸被看淡的選情，賀錦麗在選戰最後關頭多次將特朗普比作法西斯主義者。

自由派對特朗普的焦慮由來已久。2016年，特朗普以民粹主義勝出，隨後宣告退出《巴黎協定》，推行強硬反移民政策，這些舉措都對自由派價值觀造成衝擊。儘管2020年大選拜登成功阻擋特朗普連任，但自由派的噩夢並未結束。特朗普指控選舉舞弊、其支持者衝擊國會並流血收場，對美國民主制度造成了前所未有的損害。特朗普目前仍身陷與國會騷亂相關的司法程序，若他再次當選，勢必對美國自由派造成巨大震撼。

賀錦麗來自加州這個自由派大本營，儘管擔任副總統，但在經濟方面的角色及表現並不突出，更有人以此質疑她的治國能力。民調機構蓋洛普9月做了一項調查，經濟是唯一有過半數美國選民（52%）視為「極端重要」的議題。

該機構上月底以開放式問答形式再作調查，經濟依然是最重要因素，佔21%。排第二是佔比13%的移民問題，墮胎權/女性權益以9%得票率位居第三。有利於特朗普的因素其實更受關注。特朗普在2016年橫掃民主黨票倉，就是靠戳中低下勞工階層生活困頓的痛點。

作為一名被自由派視為民主威脅的極端政客，特朗普卻獲得近半數選民支持，讓人不得不思考自由派的價值觀為何跨不過社會經濟鴻溝。無論選舉結果如何，美國政治與社會撕裂，都是不容忽視的事實。

■ Glossary 生字 /

laud (sb/sth) : to praise sb/sth

fret : ​to be worried or unhappy and not able to relax

cleavage : a difference or division between people or groups

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Audio files provided by John W