As early as Leung's tenure as Chief Executive, the government had proposed land reclamation from the Central Waters. Then Carrie Lam took over as Chief Executive and launched a big debate on land supply. Lantau Tomorrow Vision, a plan for land reclamation and island building, emerged as a result.
When the incumbent administration took office, the name of the plan changed, but the objective of building an island to create 1,000 hectares of land remains unchanged. However, due to factors such as the economic downturn, the authorities have slowed the artificial island plan. The latest goal is to begin land reclamation within the current term (that is, by 2027 at the latest). Secretary for Development Bernadette Linn has stressed that the project will not be shelved — it will just be pursued at a slower pace.
Over the past few years, there have been occasional views in political and business circles that the government should defer or even shelve the artificial island construction plan. Leung's recent online article on the need to guard against "oversupply" of land has aroused widespread concern from all sides of society not only because Leung kept emphasising the need to increase land supply when he was Chief Executive, but also because his comment triggered associations with the artificial island project.
Leung said that the shortage of land and housing supply in Hong Kong is only temporary. In the future, it is not the case that "the more supply, the better", but both supply and demand must be considered. While a decline in property prices is beneficial for addressing the housing problem, it will lead to issues such as negative equity, financial concerns and public finance problems. Fiscal revenue and expenditure must be budgeted, argued Leung.
In response to reporters' questions yesterday (29 October), Chief Executive John Lee stressed that land creation and supply are two different matters. He said that with continuous land creation, the government can release land when necessary, while land that does not need to be launched can be put in the land reserves. The specific amount of land supply will be objectively determined based on data.
In 2019, the government estimated that the artificial island would cost over $500 billion, while the land revenue was expected to hit $1 trillion. The authorities emphasised that as the project would have a development period of 20 years, the annual cost would be only about $30 billion, not to mention that it could be financed by bond issuance. The public, however, was concerned that the government might have underestimated the cost.
Now it is a different time. In recent years, property and land prices have dropped considerably. This, together with the structural transformation of Hong Kong's internal and external environments, means that the land revenue of the artificial island definitely needs to be re-evaluated. According to the government's statement last year, the land revenue of the artificial island would amount to about $750 billion, and the construction cost would be about $580 billion. However, the government has not provided more updated figures or information since then.
Artificial island reclamation can undoubtedly be "drawn out". However, if the authorities fail to provide more data and information, it will be difficult for the public to judge whether the artificial island plan is financially feasible. The Civil Engineering and Development Department and the Planning Department started the artificial island planning and engineering research in 2021, which is expected to be completed by the end of this year. It is hoped that the authorities will provide more data and planning details as soon as possible, which can serve as an objective and solid basis for all sectors of society to discuss the plan.
明報社評 2024.10.30：土地供應須政府主導 談人工島要更多數據
全國政協副主席梁振英最近談及本港土地房屋供應前景，一句「慎防供過於求」，引起不少迴響。
早於梁振英擔任行政長官時，政府便有中部水域填海的倡議，其後林鄭月娥接任特首，發起土地大辯論，「明日大嶼」填海建島計劃應運而生。
及至現屆政府上台，計劃名稱雖然有變，但建島造地1000公頃目標並無改變，惟受經濟下行等因素影響，當局放慢了人工島計劃，最新目標是爭取在現屆政府任內（即最遲2027年）啟動填海。發展局長甯漢豪強調，項目不會擱置，只是步速比較慢。
過去數年，政商界不時有聲音認為，政府應押後以至擱置人工島計劃。梁振英近日網上發文，提到慎防土地「供過於求」，引起各方廣泛關注，一方面因為梁振英昔日擔任特首時，一直強調要增加土地供應，另一方面也因為有關說法令人聯想到人工島項目。
梁振英表示，香港土地房屋供應短缺只是目前，未來供應「並非愈多愈好」，必須看供需，樓價下跌對解決住屋問題雖是好事，但會衍生負資產、金融和公共財政等問題，財政收支不能不預算。
行政長官李家超昨天回應記者提問，強調造地和供應是兩件事，不斷造地可以在有需要時推出土地，亦可將不需要推出的土地放在儲備，具體土地供應數量，一定會按數據作出客觀判斷。
2019年，政府曾估算人工島造價約要5000多億元，而土地收益料可達到1萬億元。當局強調項目發展長達20年，一年所花不過300億元左右，更可發債融資，外界則關注政府低估造價。
時移世易，近年樓價地價顯著回落，加上本港內外環境出現結構轉型，人工島土地收益當然要重新評估。根據政府去年的說法，人工島土地收益約為7500億元，工程造價則為5800億元，惟之後再無更新數字或提供更多資料。
人工島填海無疑可以「拉長」來做，但如果當局無法提供更多數據和資料，外界很難判斷人工島計劃的財政是否可行。土木工程署及規劃署2021年開展人工島規劃及工程研究，預計今年底完成，期待當局早日提供更多數據和規劃細節，讓各界有更客觀和紮實的基礎，去討論人工島計劃。
/ Glossary生字 /
glut：a situation in which there is more of sth than is needed or can be used
negative equity ：the situation in which the value of sb's house is less than the amount of money that is still owed to a mortgage company, such as a bank
issuance：the action of supplying or distributing sth, especially for official purposes
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