Bilingual Editorial: Measures to Support the Grassroots
雙語社評：刺激經濟措施難長推 惠民生助基層不能少
文章日期：2023年6月2日
雙語社評齊齊聽
[英語 (足本收聽)] Presented by KWOK, Chun-tung Tony, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
[普通話 (足本收聽)] Presented by Dr MAO, Sheng Michelle, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
With the budget to be unveiled tomorrow (22 February), government officials have repeatedly emphasised recently that huge fiscal deficits had accumulated over the past few years, causing the fiscal reserves to shrink significantly and making it necessary to find new sources of revenue and reduce expenditure.
Under the pandemic, lives were tough, and all industries struggled. Budgets of the past three years introduced many measures to support the economy and livelihoods. Early into the pandemic, for example, the government launched an unprecedented Employment Support Scheme to subsidise companies' salary payments. Furthermore, over the past two years, the government issued electronic consumption vouchers worth $5,000 and $10,000 to all adult citizens in Hong Kong.
Towards the government's first budget in "the post-pandemic era", citizens and businesses have different expectations. Many people hope that cash and consumption voucher handouts will continue. Some hope that the property market cooling measures will be lifted. The tourism industry hopes that the government will set up a business resumption fund to provide support. However, judging from officials' recent statements, government spending cuts are expected. It is also believed that some extraordinary measures for the extraordinary times of the pandemic will be scaled back if not completely revoked.
Over three years, the government has spent more than $600 billion on fighting the pandemic and supporting livelihoods and businesses. At the same time, its fiscal revenue has fallen significantly due to the pandemic. In the year 2020/21, the government saw a record-breaking fiscal deficit of more than $200 billion. As for the year 2022/23, a deficit of over $100 billion is also expected.
Financial Secretary Paul Chan said the challenge of preparing the budget this year lies with the accumulation of the "rather high deficits" over the past few years, given that Hong Kong had been hit by a three-year COVID pandemic and that external economies are sluggish. Chan noted that the economy remains fragile, and the momentum for recovery still needs to be strengthened. He wrote that on the one hand, the authorities must work hard to improve people's lives, fuel up Hong Kong's development and make long-term plans for future developments; and on the other hand, the government must exercise fiscal discipline and maintain sustainability of public finances.
Christopher Hui, the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, said that there is about $800 billion in the fiscal reserves, equivalent to 12 months of government expenditure. This is less than the 20 months of reserves that were available three years ago. The government cannot possibly launch large-scale economic stimulus policies prolongedly, and it needs to "strike a balance between easing and tightening", he said.
As the economy recovers and government revenue improves, it is not impossible to balance the books again. Although the government's financial reserves have fallen to less than $800 billion, it is still a considerable amount of money that is the envy of many international cities. The real problem of Hong Kong's public finances lies with the narrow tax base, the low proportion of direct tax revenue (mainly including salaries tax and profits tax), and the high proportion of land-related revenue, which tends to fluctuate wildly. To a certain extent, this is why Financial Secretaries over the years have tended to misestimate the actual revenue of the government.
The SAR government needs to think about how to reduce its reliance on land income in the long run to avoid economic cycle fluctuations easily leading to huge fiscal deficits. What it should not do is use periodic fiscal deficits as an excuse to scale back on measures that provide relief for the people.
刺激經濟措施難長推 惠民生助基層不能少
財政預算案明天出爐，官員近期一再強調，過去數年累積龐大財赤，財政儲備顯著縮水，需要開源節流。
疫下民生困頓百業艱難，過去3年的財政預算案，推出了不少撐經濟、保民生措施，例如疫情初期，政府便破天荒以保就業計劃，津貼企業出糧；另外，政府過去兩年還向全港成年市民，分別發放5000及1萬元電子消費券。
今次是「後抗疫時期」政府首份財政預算案，市民百業各有期望，不少人希望繼續派錢派消費券，有人希望樓市撤辣，旅遊業界則希望政府設立復業基金提供支援，不過觀乎近期官員說法，政府開支料將收緊，疫下非常時期的一些非常措施，即使不是全面取消，規模相信亦將大幅縮減。
政府3年來花在抗疫及支援民生百業的開支超過6000億元，與此同時，庫房收入又因疫情顯著減少，2020/21年度，政府錄得破紀錄逾2000億元財赤，2022/23年度赤字預計也將超過1000億元。
財政司長陳茂波稱，今年制訂預算案的挑戰，在於本港經歷3年新冠疫情打擊，加上外圍經濟疲弱，令庫房數年來累積「頗高的赤字」，目前經濟處於乍暖還寒階段，復蘇勢頭仍需加固，當局一方面要拼經濟惠民生，為香港增添發展動能，為未來發展作長遠佈局，另一方面要保持財政紀律，維持公共財政的可持續性。
財庫局長許正宇則稱，現時財政儲備約8000億元，相當於政府12個月開支，較3年前儲備可用20個月為少，政府不能長期推出大規模刺激經濟政策，要做到「張弛有道」，云云。
隨着經濟復蘇，政府收入改善，收支平衡並非無法恢復；政府財政儲備雖然降至不足8000億元，但仍是足以令很多國際大城市欣羨不已的可觀金額。香港公共財政的真正問題，是稅基狹窄、直接稅（主要包括薪俸稅和利得稅）收入比重偏低，以及土地相關收入比重太高，容易大上大落，這某程度亦是多年來財政司長經常錯估政府實際收入的原因。
特區政府需要思考如何長遠減少依賴土地收入，以免經濟周期波動容易導致巨額財赤出現，而不是將周期性的財赤問題，作為削減惠民措施的藉口。
明報社評 2023.02.21
