Bilingual Editorial: Reverse Currency War
雙語社評：逆向貨幣戰如火如荼 英鎊遭殃似新興市場
文章日期：2022年11月4日
雙語社評齊齊聽
[英語 (足本收聽)] Presented by Mr. KWOK, Chun-tung Tony, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
[普通話 (足本收聽)] Presented by Dr Wei Tina Qiu, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
A "reverse currency war" is in full swing around the world.
Last week the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time in a row by 0.75%, at the same time sending a strong signal that it would insist on raising interest rates to curb inflation. The move stimulated capital to flow back to the US, driving up the US dollar index to a 20-year high. All other currencies were under pressure against the US dollar. The Euro, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, South Korean won, RMB and the others have not been spared. To stabilise currency values and fight inflation, many central banks have raised interest rates one after another. In a rare move, the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market last week, selling US dollars to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998.
Last week, the UK announced the biggest tax cut plan in half a century, and it is expected that fiscal expenditure will increase by an additional £161 billion (about HK$1.3 trillion) over the next five years. At a time when inflation in the UK approaches double digits, such massive tax cuts will stimulate demand, which is tantamount to fueling inflation. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has described the economics of the Liz Truss's tax cuts as "naive and wishful thinking". Some people have criticised the plan for being slanted in favour of a handful of rich people. The market is worried that as a recession might be looming, the UK government will intensify the "twin deficits", i.e., the deficits of trade and the current account, by borrowing such massive amounts of money, which might cause the country's debt problems to spiral out of control. As a result, the British pound and national bonds plummeted. The exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar fell by 4% at one point yesterday morning (26 September) to as low as 1.035 USD, having already fallen sharply by 3.5% last Friday. After regaining some lost ground, the pound returned to the 1.06 USD level.
Within just two weeks, the pound fell by more than 10% at one point. Such volatility is not typical of the currency of a major country, but is more like that of an emerging market. If the trend continues, it will only be a matter of time before the pound falls below parity with the US dollar. The UK relies heavily on imports, and more than 50% of its food is imported. Among the main imported commodities is oil, which is denominated in US dollars. The sharp drop in the pound is having a great impact on people's livelihood. In Hong Kong, many people either have British pounds in their deposits or have relatives living in the UK, and the sharp weakening of the pound has naturally attracted attention. The share prices of HSBC and CK Asset Holdings, which have quite many businesses in the UK, also fell heavily yesterday.
In 1992, the pound crumbled thanks to attacks by George Soros. Some analysts from major banks have warned that there may be an "emerging market-style currency crisis" in the UK in the near future, and the pound could lose its status as a respectable major international currency. Nouriel Roubini, the US economist aka "Dr Doom", even warned that the history of Britain begging for International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts in 1976 could be repeated. Investors speculate that the Bank of England might hold an emergency meeting this week and announce a sharp interest rate hike to demonstrate its determination to support the exchange rate of the pound. That said, the responsibility of curbing inflation and stabilising the exchange rate must not be shouldered by a central bank merely. The government must act accordingly.
The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has sufficient resources at its disposal to support the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar, but they might be depleted at a faster rate than expected. Rising interest rates will inevitably have an impact on the economy. Facing such treacherous external circumstances, the government must pay close attention and deal with them carefully.
逆向貨幣戰如火如荼 英鎊遭殃似新興市場
一場「逆向貨幣戰爭」（reverse currency war）正在全球如火如荼展開。
美國聯儲局上周連續第三次加息0.75厘，同時釋出將會堅持加息遏抑通脹的強烈信號，刺激資金回流美國，美匯指數升見20年新高，其他貨幣兌美元全線受壓，歐元、加幣、日圓、韓圜、人民幣等無一倖免。多國央行為了穩定幣值和抗擊通脹，紛紛加息，日本政府則於上周罕有出手干預匯市，自1998年以來首度沽美元托日圓。
英國上周公布半世紀最龐大減稅計劃，預計未來5年財政開支額外增加1610億鎊（約1.3萬億港元）。英國通脹直逼雙位數，大幅減稅刺激需求，形同為通脹添柴加薪。美國前財長薩默斯形容，卓慧思政府的減稅經濟學「幼稚兼一廂情願」，有人批評方案向小撮富人利益傾斜，市場則擔心，衰退迫在眉睫，英國當局還去大量舉債，貿易和經常帳「雙赤字」加劇，債務有失控之虞，結果觸發鎊匯及國債暴跌，英鎊兌美元匯率，繼上周五急跌3.5%，昨早一度再跌4%，低見1.035水平，之後收復部分失地，回到1.06水平。
短短兩周，英鎊一度跌逾一成，波動程度不似主流大國貨幣，反而更像新興市場貨幣，倘若走勢不變，英鎊兌美元跌穿1算，只是時間問題。英國依賴進口，糧食逾五成是舶來貨，主要入口商品包括石油，兼且以美元計價，英鎊大跌對民生影響很大。在香港，不少人持有英鎊，又或有親人居於當地，鎊匯暴跌自然備受關注；涉足英國生意較多的匯控和長實等，昨天也受累股價大跌。
1992年英鎊曾遭索羅斯狙擊暴跌，一些大行分析師已警告，英國不久將來恐出現一場「新興市場式的貨幣危機」，英鎊可能會失去作為國際受尊重主要貨幣的地位，美國「末日博士」魯比尼甚至警告，1976年英國乞求IMF救助的歷史，有可能重演。投資者揣測，英倫銀行本周有可能緊急開會，宣布大幅加息，藉以展示支持鎊匯的決心，可是遏抑通脹穩定匯率，不能只靠央行，政府必須配合。
港元與美元掛鈎，金管局有充足彈藥支持港元匯價，但消耗程度有可能比預期快，息口趨升對經濟難免有影響，外圍形勢凶險，政府必須密切留意，小心應對。
明報社評 2022.09.27
