【明報專訊】If we believe that life is full of uncertainties, there is no reason to subscribe to the idea that history will develop on some predetermined trajectory. Historicism was rejected by Karl Popper as ''bankrupt'' and ''dangerous'', although it continues to be exploited by dictatorial regimes to advance their agendas. It is also pointless to try to locate ourselves in the so-called historical ''cycle''—there is no such thing. After the Franco-Prussian War between 1870 and 1871, Europeans lived in such peace that they thought there would never be war again, and the rest is history. The many dark forces that rock the seemingly steady cruise of the boat—like a toxic ideology or the fantasies of a maniac in power—can rear their ugly heads anytime. They can also not.