雙語社評齊齊聽

[英語 (足本收聽)] Presented by Ms CHAN, Zoe Ka-ling, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

[普通話 (足本收聽)] Presented by Dr JIAO, Nina, Lecturer of School of Professional Education and Executive Development, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Since late last month, , there has been a large-scale shortage of electricity on the mainland, something unprecedented in decades. Eleven provinces have seen limitations of electric power supply. Some enterprises have had to suspend work, and residential buildings in the northeast have suffered power cuts. The main reason is that the relevant departments have inadequate forecasts of electricity consumption and coal prices. They have also failed to provide effective supervision and guidance for the production capacity of power supply departments and the supply of coal. All this has resulted in the supply being seriously outstripped by demand. Although the government has taken emergency measures, the crisis is not over. Remedial measures are not permanent solutions, and the mainland authorities should learn a lesson. They should reform electricity prices and improve the supervision and coordination mechanism.

[ENG audio 1]

In the early days of reform and opening up, the electricity generation capacity was severely insufficient, and power cuts were common. Almost all factories and hotels had to install backup generators. Later, the situation gradually improved. As for this year, the reasons for the power supply being outstripped by demand are much more complicated. The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected production in many countries. Among the major countries, only China's production has recovered in the fastest and best manner. In the first eight months of this year, its exports increased by 23.2%, and electricity consumption also increased by 13.8%. In Guangdong Province, the rise was even 17.3%. It is not production in factories that has seen huge rises in electricity consumption. The greater number of hot days this year has made household air conditioners and electric vehicles more popular, which has also increased the demand for electricity. The economic recovery has led to a surge in electricity consumption in shopping malls and other large facilities. In Guangdong Province, electricity consumption in the service industry rose by 23.1% in the first eight months of the year, which speaks volumes.

[ENG audio 2]

The economic growth rate of the Northeast region is not high, and there has not been a significant increase in demand for industrial and commercial electricity. However, it has become the region with the most severe power cuts. This is probably related to the "energy saving and consumption reduction" policy implemented on the mainland in recent years. The national authorities have promised to the international community that China will reach its peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Since 2015, all provinces have been required to reduce the growth rates of electricity consumption year by year. The National Development and Reform Commission issues warnings to provinces that fail to meet the standards. In the past, the records were reviewed at the year end, and provinces were criticised if they exceeded the limits. Now the warnings are being issued at earlier dates. In the first half of this year, nine provinces were issued first-level warnings for failing to meet the standards. This is why many provinces have imposed limits on electricity consumption earlier than in previous years to meet the year-end targets. Some provinces have done so roughly. Jilin Province, for example, does not give notice in advance for water and power cuts.

[ENG audio 3]

The most fundamental reason for the lack of power supply is the sharp rise in the price of coal for power generation. With the gradual recovery of economic activities and production in various countries and the surge in power consumption, the price of international coal for electricity has risen sharply from about US$72 per tonne in early May this year to US$234 a tonne on 1 October. The trend in prices has been similar inside China.

[ENG audio 4]

China's commitment to the international community to reduce carbon emissions must be achieved. The power shortage this time may make it impossible to reach the set targets this year. But it can play catch-up next year. What is more necessary, however, is a more effective mechanism to encourage the use of clean energy and encourage companies to use environmentally friendly products. Only by doing so can energy be saved and consumption be reduced.

[ENG audio 5]

拉閘限電原因複雜 統籌責任不能推卸

從上月底開始，內地出現了幾十年來沒有過的大規模缺電情况，限量供電席捲11個省，部分企業要停工，東北的民居要停電。主要成因是有關部門對用電量及煤炭價格預測不足，沒有對供電部門的產量以至煤炭供應有效監督與指導，造成嚴重的供不應求。雖然政府已經採取應急措施，但危機還沒有過去，亡羊補牢的措施並非治本之策，政府應該檢討教訓，改革電價以及健全監督統籌機制。

[PTH audio 1]

改革開放初期，發電能力嚴重不足，拉閘限電情况十分普遍，工廠與酒店幾乎都要設置後備發電機，及後逐步改善。今年電力供不應求的成因複雜得多，疫情導致很多國家的生產受到很大影響，主要國家中只有中國的生產恢復得最快最好，今年頭8個月的出口增長23.2%，用電量也增長了13.8%，廣東省的用電量增長更達到17.3%。用電量大幅上升除了工廠生產以外，今年酷熱天數增加，家用冷氣機及電動汽車愈加普及，也加劇了用電需求，經濟復蘇導致商場等大型設施用電激增，廣東省服務業用電量頭8個月增幅達到23.1%，可見一斑。

[PTH audio 2]

東北地區經濟增長率不高，無論在工業和商業用電都不存在需求大幅提高的情况，卻成了拉閘限電最為嚴重的地區。這恐怕跟內地近年實施的「節能降耗」政策有關，國家對國際社會承諾，2030年達到碳排放峰值，2060年達到碳中和目標。從2015年開始各省都要每年逐步降低用電增長率，對於未能達標的省份，發改委會發出警告，過去是年底結算，超標會受到批評，而今是提前發出預警，今年上半年9個省份沒有達標而受到一級警告，所以很多省份比往年提前實施限制用電，以達到年終指標。一些作風粗暴的省份，諸如吉林省停水停電卻不提前發出通知。

[PTH audio 3]

電力供應不足的最根本原因在於發電用的煤炭價格急升，隨着各國經濟生產逐步恢復，用電量激增，國際電煤價格從今年5月初約72美元一噸，10月1日猛升至234美元一噸，國內價格走勢相若。

[PTH audio 4]

中國對國際社會許下降低碳排放的承諾，必要做到，這次出現電荒可能會影響今年不能完成既定指標，來年可以急起直追，但更加需要的是一套更有效的機制，鼓勵使用清潔能源，鼓勵企業使用環保產品，才能真正做到節能降耗。

[PTH audio 5]

明報社評2021.10.04