雙語社評齊齊聽

[英語 (足本收聽)] Presented by Dr Eric Cheung, Lecturer of School of Professional Education and Executive Development, SPEED, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

[普通話 (足本收聽)] Presented by Ms QIU, Tina Wei, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

With the release of the budget, measures such as the $5,000 electronic consumption vouchers and the increases in stamp duty on stock transfers and vehicle licence fees for private cars have attracted much attention. Amid the pandemic, people and businesses are having a hard time. The government needs to make good use of resources to provide precise relief and support for the economy, while at the same time it has to find ways to increase revenue and reduce expenditure to cope with the pressure on public finance. The budget estimates that a deficit of around 100 billion dollars will be recorded in the new year, and in the next few years, the Operating Account will also record an annual deficit of tens of billions of dollars. The red light for a structural deficit is on, but the government is constrained by the pandemic and has not taken any drastic action, and can only address the shortfall by issuing bonds and ploughing back future fund incomes to reduce the size of the deficit. These stopgap measures can theoretically help the government buy time for consensus building to broaden the tax base while waiting for the global economy to improve. However, when it comes to reform, if the government continues to dilly-dally and be all talk and no action, the public finance crisis will only deepen further.

[ENG audio 1]

In the past two years, Hong Kong has been hit by the trade war between the US and China, the anti-amendment storm and the COVID-19 pandemic. As the economy has been in deep recession and the number of unemployed people has surged, the government has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into measures that ''support the economy and maintain employment'', so the public finance situation is also facing serious challenges. Government deficits in the year 2020/21 reached a record high of $257.6 billion, and the deficit in the new year is estimated to be as high as $100 billion. The government cannot sit back and do nothing when people and businesses are having such a hard time. It must introduce counter-cyclical measures to support the economy and relief measures to help the public. However, the government also has to manage the public finances prudently to cope with the huge deficit pressure.

[ENG audio 2]

While the public is concerned about the immediate relief measures, the government must look farther ahead and focus on the long-term sustainability of public finances. Hong Kong's ageing population has led to a significant increase in social welfare and health care spending over the past decade. In order to invest in the future, investment in education and scientific research is also essential. Hong Kong's tax base is narrow and overly dependent on revenue from land sales and others. For many years, there have been calls to broaden the tax base, and various proposals have even been put forward. But dipping into the public purse is always a political challenge. When the economy is good, there is ''no urgency'' to do so. When the economy is in recession, there is ''no room'' to do so, and as a result, the issue of broadening the tax base has been put on the shelf for a long time.

[ENG audio 3]

The government's proposal to raise the stamp duty on stock transfers from 0.1% to 0.13% and to significantly increase the first registration tax and vehicle licence fees for private cars—the first registration tax has remained unchanged for more than 10 years—has been described by some as a ''bold move''. However, its effect on supplementing government revenue is actually limited. In terms of cutting costs, the government's freezing of the manpower of the civil service and the requirement for departments to reduce recurrent expenditure by 1% are also a drop in the bucket. By ploughing back the housing reserve and the investment income of the future fund into the account, which will involve more than $40 billion a year, the government can make the fiscal deficit look smaller. However, this is only a ''financial manoeuvre'' to a certain extent, and can only help society find more time to forge a consensus on how to broaden the tax base in the long run.

[ENG audio 4]

守勢預算案紓困有限 結構財赤危機須正視

《財政預算案》出爐，5000元電子消費券、上調股票印花稅及私家車牌費等措施廣受關注。疫下百業民生困頓，政府需要善用資源，精準紓困、支持經濟，與此同時，當局亦得設法開源節流，應付公共財政壓力。預算案估計，新一年將錄得千億元財赤，未來數年，經營帳目亦將年年錄得數百億元赤字，結構財赤紅燈亮起，政府受制於「疫境」，未見大刀闊斧動作，只能透過發債、回撥未來基金收益等方法幫補，縮小財赤規模。這些做法，作為權宜之計，理論上可以一邊為凝聚共識擴闊稅基爭取時間，一邊等待全球經濟好轉，然而如果改革仍舊是光說不練，蹉跎歲月，公共財政危機只會進一步加深。

[PTH audio 1]

過去兩年，香港接連受中美貿易戰、反修例風暴和新冠疫情衝擊，經濟深度衰退，失業人數飈升；政府為「撐經濟保就業」，投入數千億元銀彈，公共財政狀况同樣面臨嚴峻挑戰。2020/21年度政府財赤達到破紀錄的2576億元，至於新一年度赤字，估計亦高達1000億元。民生百業艱難，政府不能撒手不管，必須有逆周期措施撐經濟、有紓困措施幫市民，可是當局亦得審慎理財，應付龐大財赤壓力。

[PTH audio 2]

市民關心眼前紓困措施，政府則必須目光放遠，着眼長遠公共財政狀况的可持續性。香港人口老化，過去10年社福醫療開支大幅增加；為了投資未來，教育和科研投入亦不能少。香港稅基狹窄，過度依賴賣地等收入，多年來都有意見呼籲擴闊稅基，甚至提出各式各樣方案，然而向市民口袋要錢，永遠是政治難題，經濟好景時「沒有迫切性」去做，經濟衰退時則「沒有空間」去做，結果是擴闊稅基問題長期束之高閣。

[PTH audio 3]

政府建議將股票印花稅由0.1%上調至0.13%，以及將10多年無變的私家車首次登記稅及牌費顯著上調，有人形容是「勇氣之舉」，可是對於幫補政府收入，作用其實有限。節流方面，政府凍結公務員編制人手、要求各部門減少經常開支1%，同樣是杯水車薪。當局將房屋儲備金及未來基金投資收益回撥入帳，一年涉款逾400億元，令財政赤字看上去可以小一些，可是這某程度只是一種「財技」，只能為社會爭取多些時間，就長遠如何擴闊稅基，凝聚共識。

[PTH audio 4]

明報社評2021.02.25