Editorial : Deep in recession, hard path ahead
文章日期:2020年5月6日

【明報專訊】HONG KONG'S economy is mired in recession amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) has suffered its worst decline on record, shrinking by 8.9% year on year in the first quarter according to the government's estimates. From consumption, to investments, to exports, the economy has ground to a halt across the board. Exports of services have even slumped by nearly 40%, a collapse that reflects the heavy toll on the city's inbound tourism. The GDP is a lagging indicator. The crux of the matter is when the recession will bottom out and whether the economy will rebound or continue to languish at a low level. As the pandemic has eased in Hong Kong in recent days, it is possible that the anti-pandemic measures may be relaxed later, thus giving a boost to the consumer market. However, the recovery of the economy also depends on how the pandemic goes and the political-economic situation outside Hong Kong as well as the local political and social situation. As it is unlikely that the pandemic-stricken Western countries will see a V-shaped economic rebound, it is difficult for Hong Kong exports to recover in the short term. The escalation of Sino-US confrontation and the looming recurrence of local political storms also cast a shadow over the path to recovery. A big question mark remains as to whether the Hong Kong economy can come out of the bottom in the second half of this year.

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