Bilingual Editorial: The risk of ''limited human-to-human transmission''
雙語社評：緊盯「有限人傳人」風險 肺炎防疫須更透明
文章日期：2020年2月21日
雙語社評齊齊聽
[英語 (足本收聽)] Presented by Mr CHAN, Jason Siu-chuen, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
[普通話 (足本收聽)] Presented by Dr SHI, Huiwen, Lecturer of Hong Kong Community College, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
More than a fortnight has passed since a string of pneumonia cases involving a novel coronavirus was first reported in Wuhan. In view of the absence of new cases since January 3 and zero reports of infected healthcare workers, a German virologist assisting the World Health Organisation (WHO) with responding to the outbreak believes the virus may not be highly contagious and is cautiously optimistic about the prospect of fighting the epidemic. Still, many puzzles about the outbreak remain to be solved. For example, the fact that two people in the confirmed cases in Wuhan are a couple has raised concerns about the possibility of "limited human-to-human transmission". The confirmed case in Thailand of an infected traveller from Wuhan has also highlighted the risk of the virus emerging outside China. While WHO is satisfied with the way mainland China has responded to the outbreak and its sharing of relevant information so far, some people maintain that the release of information has not been fast or comprehensive enough. The transmissibility of a virus can multiply after mutation. Greater transparency in the release of information will help reduce suspicions and mistrust. Regarding the possibility of limited human-to-human transmission of the virus, WHO has indicated that the odds of a wider spread of the outbreak are still there and it is necessary to be prepared for that. Hong Kong must remain highly alert and the mainland authorities must also broaden the scope of their surveillance and increase the transparency of their information.
The outbreak of the Wuhan pneumonia has revived horrible memories among Hong Kong people as well as the global community of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003. In the current outbreak, there are altogether 41 cases of confirmed diagnosis on the mainland, dated from December 8 last year to January 2, 2020. Around 70% of the patients were frequenters of Wuhan's Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, but a small number of patients denied having been there. According to the genetic map shared by the mainland, the genetic sequence of the novel virus bears a 70-to-80% resemblance to the SARS virus. Christian Drosten, a German authority on virology who is assisting WHO with tackling the new virus, thinks that it is of the same type as SARS, only that they are of different forms. But fortunately, international experts generally agree that according to available information, the outbreak is not very serious yet.
The situation of infection among healthcare workers is an indicator of the transmissibility of a virus. Hong Kong people still have fresh memories of the widespread infection of SARS among healthcare workers when the outbreak began in the city's hospitals. By comparison, the Wuhan pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus has not infected any healthcare workers so far. Drosten thinks it shows that the virus is not easily transmissible from human to human. The main syndromes of the disease are fever and pneumonia. The upper respiratory tract is spared. The absence of syndromes like sneezing or a runny nose naturally means that it is harder to spread the disease.
17 years have passed since officials of the mainland were widely denounced for withholding information during the 2003 SARS epidemic. Today, suspicions remain in the outside world about the release of information by the mainland. Some have questioned whether the Wuhan authorities had been aware of the outbreak long before they reported it on New Year's Eve. Others have suspected whether the mainland is hiding the number of cases and the real situation of the contagion. Nevertheless, WHO has openly expressed satisfaction with and assurance of the mainland authorities regarding their response to the outbreak and the regular sharing of information concerned, particularly the results of genetic sequencing.
Science requires both bold hypothesis and careful verification. A contagion is a matter of life or death. Any theory that falls short of accuracy may possibly mislead the direction of research or even result in public panic.
緊盯「有限人傳人」風險 肺炎防疫須更透明
武漢通報新型冠狀病毒肺炎，至今兩周有餘，內地自1月3日以來再無新感染個案，亦未有醫護感染報告，有協助世衛的德國病毒專家認為，這反映病毒未具高度傳染力，抗疫審慎樂觀。不過今次疫情尚有很多謎團待查。武漢確診病例中有兩人為夫婦，令人關注病毒「有限度人傳人」的可能性；有武漢旅客在泰國確診，則突顯病毒在其他地方出現的風險。世衛滿意內地迄今應對疫情和分享信息的表現，惟亦有人認為資訊發放未夠迅速全面。病毒變種傳染力可以驟增，資訊愈透明，愈可減少猜疑不信任。對於病毒或可有限度人傳人，世衛指出較大規模爆發機率始終存在，需要做好準備。香港必須保持高度戒備，內地當局亦應擴大監察範圍，提高資訊透明度。
武漢肺炎疫情，勾起香港以至國際社會對2003年SARS的可怕回憶。今次內地合共有41宗確診病例報告，出現日期在去年12月8日至2020年1月2日之間，七成患者經常出入武漢華南海鮮市場，小部分患者否認去過該市場。根據內地公布的基因圖譜，新病毒基因排序與SARS有七八成相似。有份協助世衛應對新病毒的德國權威專家德羅斯滕認為，它與SARS屬同一種病毒，只是形態不一。可幸的是，國際專家普遍認為，根據現有資料，疫情未算很嚴重。
病毒傳染力高低，醫護感染情况是一個參考指標，當年SARS在本港醫院爆發，多名醫護中招，港人記憶猶新。相比之下，這次武漢出現新冠狀病毒肺炎，至今沒有醫護感染報告，德羅斯滕認為這顯示新病毒不易人傳人，由於病徵主要是發燒和肺炎，未有波及上呼吸道，沒有噴嚏流涕等徵狀，傳染難度自然較大。
2003年SARS疫潮，內地官員隱瞞疫情，備受詬病。17年後的今天，外界對於內地信息發布，仍然存有懷疑。有人質疑武漢當局是否早已知道爆疫，拖至除夕當天才通報；有人懷疑內地有否隱瞞個案數目和感染情况。不過世衛則對內地應對疫情及定期分享信息，特別是分享基因排序結果，公開表示滿意和肯定。
科學既要大膽推論，亦要小心求證。傳染病人命關天，任何不夠準確的說法，都有可能誤導研究方向，甚至引起公眾恐慌。
明報社評2020.01.16
