Washington tries to have the cake and eat it
文章日期:2018年3月9日

雙語社評齊齊聽

[英語 (足本收聽)]

[普通話 (足本收聽)]

US STOCKS tumbled and triggered a global stock market crash, with the Hang Seng Index falling heavily by 1,649 points in a day. Last night US stocks stabilised in the early trading session. However, it is still cause for concern where the markets are headed.

[ENG audio 1]

US president Donald Trump had boasted about his achievements, one of them being the stock markets reaching one high after another. Two weeks later, however, US stocks slumped for two days in a row. Opinions differ as to whether US stocks have reached a plateau and are about to change direction. Some believe that US stocks plunged by more than 1,100 points on Monday primarily due to technical factors. As there is not an apparent economic reason that triggered the fall, they are confident that the market remains bullish. Some commentators, however, are worried that as the US's fiscal policy becomes the norm, US stocks and bonds are in for a correction. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has recently warned that there are significant bubbles in the US stock and bond markets. If the bubbles burst and interest rates rise sharply, it will have serious consequences for the real economy.

[ENG audio 2]

In January the growth rate of US hourly wages accelerated to 2.9 per cent, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. With the spectre of inflation looming, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note once rose to 2.88 per cent, triggering the US stock crash. The sudden rise of 10-year Treasury yield means that the American people's interest payments will increase significantly, which diminishes their consuming power. Experts believe that if the yield rises over 3 per cent, it could trigger a massive sell-off of stocks globally.

[ENG audio 3]

This year will see the mid-term election in the US. Donald Trump and the Republican Party, playing the economy card, are determined to have the cake and eat it. They want the rally in the stock markets to continue, economic growth to exceed 3 per cent, but inflation to remain at a low level. The problem is that Donald Trump's US$ 1.5 trillion tax cut plan is likely to escalate debts. Statistics from the Treasury Department show that the US has to issue bonds of US$3 trillion over the next three years. Donald Trump claims that he can devalue the US dollar by printing money to reduce the country's debt burden. But such a move is likely to fuel inflation. If Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is determined to raise interest rates, not only will it put the stock markets and real economy under pressure, but it will also increase the government's cost of debt.

[ENG audio 4]

If money-printing were the panacea, economists around the globe would not have to scratch their heads. Quantitative easing is only a palliative measure, allowing Washington to trade time for space in order to deal with such structural economic problems as the excess of debt and wealth inequality. It is obvious that Washington has failed to use the time to promote what is beneficial and abolish what is harmful.

[ENG audio 5]

All bullish markets come to an end. The continuing rise in bond yields impact on the stock markets sooner or later. The crux of the matter is whether inflation in the US will go up significantly. To this no one has a definite answer at the moment. Since late 2015 the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times, all of which were not followed by Hong Kong banks. The reason was that the market was still flush with hot money and keeping HIBOR at a low level. However, once inflation in the US increases and the Fed is determined to speed up interest rate hikes, it is questionable whether Hong Kong's stock and property markets can stand in splendid isolation. Over the past month Hong Kong stocks have risen swiftly, rendering many ordinary investors impetuous, ambitious and unmindful of the risks. The global stock market slump has provided them a good opportunity to calm down.

[ENG audio 6]

華府魚與熊掌難兼得 環球資產盛宴難永享

美股暴瀉觸發環球股市大跌,恒指一天重挫1649點,雖然昨晚美股早段回穩,惟後市走勢仍然惹人關注。

[PTH audio 1]

美國總統特朗普吹噓政績,其中之一就是股市屢創新高,豈料事隔兩周,美股卻連續兩日暴跌,究竟美股是否見頂轉勢,言人人殊。有論者認為,周一美股暴挫逾1100點,主要是技術因素導致,並無明顯的經濟觸發原因,有信心牛市行情不變,可是也有論者擔心隨着美國貨幣政策正常化,美股美債難逃一劫。最近聯儲局前主席格林斯潘警告,美股美債存在嚴重泡沫,倘若債市泡沫爆破,利率急升,對實體經濟影響將非常巨大。

[PTH audio 2]

美國1月平均時薪增速躍升至2.9%,是2008年金融海嘯以來最高水平,通脹陰霾驟起,引發10年期國債孳息一度升見2.88厘,成為美股暴瀉導火線。10年期債息飈升,意味美國民眾利息開支急增,削弱消費能力,專家認為一旦債息升穿3厘,有可能觸發環球股票拋售潮。

[PTH audio 3]

今年是美國中期選舉年,特朗普與共和黨主打經濟牌,誓要魚與熊掌兼得,既要股市繼續大升、經濟增長超過3%,同時又要通脹處於低水平。問題是特朗普減稅1.5萬億美元催谷經濟,債務勢必急升。財政部資料顯示,美國未來3年要發債3萬億美元。特朗普揚言可以靠印銀紙讓美元貶值,減低還債壓力,惟此舉勢將刺激通脹急飈;可是如果鮑威爾決心加息,不僅股市和實體經濟備受壓力,連政府舉債成本也將上升。

[PTH audio 4]

如果「印銀紙」能醫百病,全球經濟學家也毋須傷腦筋。量化寬鬆只是「止痛藥」,讓華府可以用時間換取空間,處理經濟結構問題,諸如過度舉債、貧富懸殊等,只是華府明顯未有把握這段時間興利除弊。

[PTH audio 5]

牛市有盡時,債息持續上升,早晚也必會影響股市,關鍵是美國通脹會否顯著加劇,惟目前各方都未敢斷言。自2015年底以來,聯儲局已先後5次加息,本港銀行一直未有跟隨,理由是市場仍然充斥熱錢,令拆息維持在低水平,然而一旦美國通脹升溫、聯儲局決意加快加息步伐,本港股市樓市是否仍能置身事外,實屬疑問。過去1個月港股升勢甚急,不少散戶頭腦發熱、膽大心雄,忽略風險,這次環球股市暴瀉,正好讓股民冷靜一下。

[PTH audio 6]

明報社評2018.02.07

Presented by lecturers of Hong Kong Community College, PolyU and The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Mr NG, Raymond Wai-man

Lecturer

www.hkcc-polyu.edu.hk/staff_directory/language_communication/NG,_Raymond_Wai-man-140.html

王翔

講師

www.hkcc-polyu.edu.hk/staff_directory/language_communication/WANG,_Iris_Xiang-342.html

【Bilingual Editorial】