雙語社評齊齊聽

英語 (足本收聽)

普通話 (足本收聽)

【明報專訊】FOREIGN AFFAIRS affect domestic affairs and vice versa. The former are the extension of the latter. Having tripped in the midterm elections, US President Barack Obama is now fettered by the Senate and the House of Representatives, both of which are controlled by the Republicans. Constitutionally, he has little latitude to deal with domestic affairs. The only area where he can do something is diplomacy.

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外交與內政之間互為因果，外交是內政的延續；當美國總統奧巴馬在中期選舉摔了一跤，由此受制於共和黨控制的參眾兩院，於憲制上來說，內政方面已無空間可發揮，唯一可以做點事的只有外交。

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On the foreign front, the US is mainly faced with three adversaries — Middle East terrorism, Russia and China. Obama has had defence secretary Chuck Hagel replaced because he did not get sufficiently tough with ISIS, an extremist Islamic armed organisation. Because of the Ukraine crisis, the US has worked with Western Europe to impose economic sanctions against Russia. As oil prices have been brought down by man-made factors, Russia has been incessantly grumbling. As for China, the US has attempted to block and contain it as part of its "return to Asia". Last Wednesday Obama talked about China in replying to guests' questions on a public occasion in Washington. He said he thought Chinese President Xi Jinping had consolidated power very fast and threatened human rights.

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美國如今外交爭逐主要面對三個對手，一是中東反恐，二是俄羅斯，三是中國。奧巴馬換走國防部長哈格爾，是因為他對付極端伊斯蘭武裝組織ISIS不力；對俄羅斯則是糾合西歐，因烏克蘭危機施以經濟制裁，再加人為促使石油價格下跌，令得俄羅斯叫苦連天；對中國是結合「重返亞洲」施以包夾，阻截圍堵。上周三，奧巴馬在華盛頓的一個公開場合面對來賓提問時談到中國，他認為中國國家主席習近平集權快速以及打壓人權。

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Furthermore, Obama, whose state visit to China had just ended, suddenly talked about disputes about the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands. What he said about them shows the US sets itself against China and clearly sides with the countries with which it has territorial disputes. This cannot but arouse suspicions that the US will make bold moves under its "return to Asia" strategic design. The situation in the East China Sea and that in the South China Sea are already quite turbulent. Such utterances from top US officials may add fuel to the flames — may again tense up matters, which have slightly eased.

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此外，剛結束對中國國事訪問的奧巴馬話鋒一轉，講到南海以及釣魚島紛爭。奧巴馬在這部分的講話，顯示美國在一些極具爭議的問題上仍然處於與北京抬槓的狀態，並且持有明顯立場，站在與中國有領土糾紛國家的一方。這不能不令人懷疑，美國在「重返亞洲」的戰略設計上仍將會有大動作，通過類似的高層官員講話，為本來已經紛亂的東海及南海局勢火上加油，把本來稍見和緩的局面，推向新一輪的緊張。

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It has much to do with the Democrats' defeat in the midterm elections that Obama has suddenly become so "aggressive" on the foreign front. Fettered on the domestic front, he wants to make up on the roundabouts what he has lost on the swings — to gain political capital for himself and the Democrats. Therefore, the US has recently made a number of diplomatic offensives. It has used stronger words in commenting on Russia and China and put greater pressure to bear on them. As a result, hot spots have appeared tensing up. Russia is not easy to handle. In their long-haul flights, Russian bombers have come near NATO member states. Such sorties smell strongly of retaliation. About Obama's remarks, Beijing has said China and America's common interests outweigh their differences, but it has not mentioned how it looks at what Obama has said about the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea.

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奧巴馬在外交問題上忽然如此「進取」，與民主黨在中期選舉大敗有關，內政上受制，遂而轉到外交希望「失之東隅，收之桑榆」，為民主黨及自己賺取政治資本。因此，近一段時間美國外交上同時開展多條戰線，對俄羅斯及中國都加重語氣及壓力，熱點氛圍漸見緊張。俄羅斯也非省油之燈，長程轟炸機飛近北約多國，還以顏色意味甚濃；中國對於奧巴馬的講話，則以「中美共同利益大於分歧」解套，但仍未觸及如何看待奧巴馬這次講話中的釣魚島及南海部分。

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Former Premier Zhu Rongji once said, "Sino-US relations can't be awfully good or awfully bad." That is a general comment made ten years ago, when Sino-US relations were rather good. It describes the way the two countries positively interact with each other when there are no serious conflicts between them. Now the two countries are like two kings spearing together in the west of the Pacific. Neither would give in or be outdone. One may say that, by provoking disputes over the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea, Obama has again signalled America's challenges. From this it seems clear that such may be the Asia strategy the US will mainly employ in the next couple of years. An extremely dangerous tendency may emerge once geopolitics is linked to any strategy of presidential electioneering. It will be nothing surprising if Sino-US relations worsen again in the next couple of years.

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國務院前總理朱鎔基曾經說過，「中美關係，好也好不到哪裏去，差也差不到哪裏去」，這是十年前中美關係良好年代的較為籠統說法，意思是指中美雙方在沒有巨大衝突面前的正面互動形態。不過，如今中美在西太平洋是「王見王」，誰都不會輕易示弱或讓步，這時奧巴馬撩起釣魚島及南海糾紛，可以視為再次拋出挑戰的信號。由此觀之，這極可能是未來兩年的美方亞洲戰略主流，一旦地緣戰略搭上總統選舉策略，將會是極為危險的走向，未來兩年，中美關係再有翻覆，絕不為奇。

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明報社評 2014.12.08

Presented by lecturers of Hong Kong Community College, PolyU and The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Frieda Kwok

Lecturer, HKCC

http://www.hkcc-polyu.edu.hk/staff_directory/social_communication/details.php?id=110&lang=eng

周文駿

香港專上學院講師

http://www.hkcc-polyu.edu.hk/staff_directory/social_communication/details.php?id=92&lang=chi

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